Relying on our nearly 5 years of industrial experience, after real data research and accumulation, combined with more than 50 terminal hospitals in-depth interviews, the field of vision is based on domestic and foreign, analysis of the pattern, looking forward to the trend. The content includes diagnostic reagents, instruments, etc., and strives to keep up with the industry hotspots, summarize the investment logic, and use the voice of the industry as a brick for the first and second-tier market investors.
Industry integration, the spring of high-quality domestic brands: In 2015, China's in vitro diagnostic market is 50 billion (factory), with an overall growth rate of 17%. It is expected to maintain a 15-20% growth rate in the next 3-5 years. The market share is scattered, the company is small, and from the perspective of long-term investment, there is huge room for growth and integration in the future. The growth rate of excellent domestic companies will surpass the market.
In the future, the development of excellent domestic in vitro diagnostic companies will be driven by three major drivers: 1. CFDA strengthens supervision and raises the threshold for registration, access, and clinical. The market share of domestic brands is gradually concentrated; 2. Graded diagnosis and treatment allows patients to be diverted to primary medical institutions, and imported brands are weak. Excessive sinking, positive and domestic brands; 3, national policy preference for domestic brands, encourage large public hospital equipment procurement for import substitution.
In vitro diagnostic company selection logic:
1. Choice is more important than effort. The market segment determines the ceiling of enterprise development. There are many subdivisions in in vitro diagnostics, product technology platforms, and different life cycle stages. It is recommended to focus on clinical biochemistry, immunization, POCT and other market segments.
2. Without consumables, there is no future, and consumables determine the profitability of the company. In vitro diagnosis is the industry of “waterâ€. According to the statistics, the average gross profit rate of the reagent industry exceeds 70%, and reagents are the source of continuous profit generation.
3, in vitro diagnosis, the channel is king, the channel determines whether the company's products can be benign sales. 80% of in vitro diagnostics in China are distributed through channels. 90% of the major customers in vitro diagnosis in China are in the laboratory of medical institutions. The application scenarios are relatively concentrated, the channels are reusable, and the companies with well-established channel networks have great advantages.
Long-term optimistic market segments: biochemistry, luminescence, POCT
1, clinical biochemistry: it seems that the opportunity is awkward, the actual secret opportunity. Clinical biochemical 200 manufacturers, with the CFDA strengthening supervision, excellent domestic brands will accelerate the integration of market share, to maintain the growth rate beyond the broader market. Related listed companies: Mike Bio, Xiqiao Science.
2, chemiluminescence: domestic manufacturers are in the ascendant, the prospects can be expected. As a market segment with double capacity growth, domestic substitution has just begun. The installed capacity is a prerequisite for ensuring the growth rate of the closed system. The star package is the basis for entering the terminal and the future. Related listed companies: Mike Bio and so on.
3, POCT: small capacity and fast growth, broad prospects, keep an eye on. As an effective supplement to the testing of large central laboratories, the POCT market is still immature, and the industry has no standards. It continues to focus on leading companies in the segment and future technology development. Related listed companies: Wanfu Bio, Lepu Medical, etc.
Risk Warning: Industry consolidation progress is lower than expected, and the industry's short-term valuation is too high.
On May 17, 2015, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on the Pilot Reform of Public Hospitals in Citiesâ€, striving to reduce the proportion of medicines in public hospitals in the pilot cities in 2017 (excluding Chinese herbal medicines) to around 30%. Under the premise of the proportion of national controlled drugs, the income of the laboratory has become a new force in hospital profitability, and the in vitro diagnostic industry has been pushed to the forefront and become a new star.
As an in vitro diagnostic industry with relatively low threshold and high gross profit, it has attracted many entrepreneurs and transformation enterprises. Up to now, there are more than 600 production enterprises, and the industry needs to be standardized. Looking at the history of international industry development, it is an inevitable trend that the market share of the industry will be dispersed to concentrated and a stable competitive landscape will be formed. Unlike other industries, medical care is a serious industry. The quality of products depends on life. Product performance and quality are the core values ​​of long-term investment.
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